Arbitrage in 2026 isn't easy money, but three patterns still work consistently. Each has different capital requirements and different daily availability.
1. Cross-venue arb
Buy USDT on the cheap venue (Bybit during peak), transfer via TRC-20, sell on the rich venue (Binance overnight). Net 30-50 paise per USDT after fees and tax.
Capital required: ₹10L+ across both venues. Best at peak/overnight transitions (10-11 PM, 6-7 AM IST).
2. Cross-fiat arb
Buy USDT against USD on a venue that quotes USD/USDT directly, sell against INR on India P2P. Profit when the India premium > USD spread + transaction costs.
Capital required: USD float (not always easy as an Indian — needs an offshore bank or a friendly arrangement). Best during INR weakness scares.
3. Merchant-recovery arb
When a major merchant goes offline mid-day (frozen account, KYC review), demand pools at remaining merchants and spreads widen. If you have inventory ready, you can sell at a 30-50 bps premium for 30-60 minutes.
Capital: low (₹2-5L is enough to capture). Frequency: 1-2 times a week, hard to predict.
Key takeaways
- Cross-venue: Bybit→Binance during peak/overnight transitions.
- Cross-fiat: requires USD-side access, only works during INR weakness.
- Merchant-recovery: opportunistic, low capital, irregular.
- Tax + TDS erodes 30-40% of gross — size up only when arithmetic clears.
